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FOOTBALL FINANCIAL MODEL
Five-year football finance planner

Model your
journey
before it
plays out

Set the details for any type of club and get a full P&L, squad cost compliance, and the probability of every outcome — five years out.

12
Countries
30
League tiers
>80%
Statement coverage*
Country · Tier
England · Tier 1
Stadium
35,000 seats
Horizon
Yr0 → Yr5
Football revenue · Year 5
€182.0M▲ 6.4% vs Yr4
Cumulative operating net
€30.5M
five modeled seasons
Squad cost ratio
68%
Within limits
Expected value · Yr3
+€6.2M
probability-weighted
Football revenue trajectory
Yr1€141M
Yr2€152M
Yr3€160M
Yr4€171M
Yr5€182M
All figures shown are illustrative.
Grounded in real published club accounts
Trusted byFinance Depts.OwnersJournalistsAgents
Using the model

Easy steps from a blank scenario to a comprehensive plan.

Each step takes you one layer deeper into the model's core capabilities — turning a few simple inputs into live outputs and a comprehensive picture, all fully at your control.

Select your scenario-club's defining inputs.

Country, league tier, stadium, wage level and sporting ambition. Every choice recomputes the scenario the moment you set it.

Club finance · Inputs
CountryEngland▾
Stadium seats35,000▾
League tierTier 1▾League finish6▾
Wage levelTop-Half▾European CupNone▾
Scenario grid · Yr0 → Yr5
Line itemYr0Yr1Yr2Yr3Yr4Yr5
League tierT1T1T1T1T1T1
Wage levelTHTHTHTHTHTH
League finish 9th8th7th6th6th
Domestic cup R16R32QFQFR16
European Cup ———UCoLUEL
Revenue · €M 141152160171182

Chart a five-year course with every variable live.

Set finish, cup runs and wage trajectory year by year. Revenue, costs and compliance recompute across Yr1 → Yr5 as you go.

Explore how changes to inputs impact real financial results.

Nudge one lever — here, upgrading a European Cup — and read the before/after on revenue, wage bill, operating net and squad cost headroom.

What-if · Before / After
Changed inputEuropean Cup:  UCoL  →  UEL
Before
Revenue€171.0M
Wage bill€146.0M
Operating net€6.1M
Squad ratio68% / 70%
After
Revenue€182.0M+11.0
Wage bill€146.0M—
Operating net€9.4M+3.3
Squad ratio66% / 70%−2
Profit & loss · by activity
Football Activities€17.6M
Youth/Academy(€11.6M)
Commercialization€6.0M
Squad Formation(€29.0M)
Profit/(Loss)(€17.0M)

Review full, validated, dynamic P&L statements.

Every scenario resolves to a complete statement by category — football activities, youth & academy, commercialization and squad formation — down to operating net.

Test your club's compliance with all cost regulations.

The squad cost ratio is checked live against the applicable ceilings. A single, unambiguous pass/fail — with the headroom shown — before you take the plan anywhere.

UEFA Squad Cost Rule · summary
Squad cost ratio
68%/ 70%
● Within limits
Cap 70%
0%2-point headroom100%
Who it's for

Built for people who work in numbers.

One model serves the needs of 4 key audiences. Whether you're inside a club, weighing an investment, reporting on the game, or negotiating a move — the same validated engine answers a different question.

Club Finance Departments
For teams that already model — and want a validated second opinion.

Extend existing scenarios.

Push your own five-year plan into paths you haven't modeled — a European run, a relegation, an aggressive wage year — without rebuilding the workbook.

SCENARIO BRANCHES
Base plan · internal€9.4M
+ Europa League run€12.1M
+ Title push€6.1M
− Relegation shock−€4.8M

Vet existing internal data.

Cross-check your assumptions against a model calibrated on published accounts. Where you diverge from comparable clubs, you'll see it — line by line.

ASSUMPTION CHECK
MatchdayIn range ✓
CommercialIn range ✓
BroadcastIn range ✓
Wage levels+8% high
Validation & compliance

Grounded figures. Regulations tested automatically.

A model is only as good as what anchors it. All revenue and cost lines are vetted against published accounts of comparable clubs — then tested against every regulation that applies to that country and tier.

Matchday & commercial revenues

Validated against the published statements of clubs of similar size, market and competition — not extrapolated from a single benchmark.

Wage levels

Drawn from published accounts and corroborated by credible reporting, these are the largest cost items and primary drivers of a club's fate.

Broadcast revenues

Modeled contract-by-contract — including parachute and solidarity payments — rather than as a flat league share.

Transfer activity

Estimated from three years of real activity among clubs of a similar profile, but by-club variation has the widest spread here of any line item in the P&L.

Comparable clubs, matched by revenue
Comparable clubs · Year 1
FulhamDomestic · ENG · Tier 1
SourceSeatsMatchday rev.Commercial rev.
Verified28,000€17,607,743€25,006,013
Crystal PalaceDomestic · ENG · Tier 1
SourceSeatsMatchday rev.Commercial rev.
Verified25,486€14,327,619€27,102,228
VillarrealForeign · ESP · Tier 1
SourceSeatsMatchday rev.Commercial rev.
Verified23,000€19,578,325€24,277,099
Squad cost limits — UEFA & domestic
Compliance · applied automatically

All Tier 1 clubs are tested against UEFA's rules; the applicable domestic regulation for the country and tier is layered on automatically.

UEFA Squad Cost RuleSquad cost ≤ 70% of relevant revenue
● Pass · 68%
Ratio 68%Ceiling 70% · 2-pt headroom
Domestic — England · Tier 1 (SCR)Squad cost ≤ 85% of relevant revenue
● Pass · 68%
Ratio 68%Ceiling 85% · 17-pt headroom
5-Year Probabilities

Not one forecast —the probability of every path.

The engine quantifies thousands of promotion, relegation and European paths across five seasons — each with its own probability and financial result — and resolves them into one probability-weighted outcome per year.

TODAYYEAR 1YEAR 2YEAR 3
8th2026/276.8%12.4%16.5%11.1%4.3%
Cups / PromotionMid-table · No-changeRelegation243 paths modeled

Most-likely outcomes

Year 3 · 2028/29
1
Y1Y2Y3
16.5%
+€4.8M
2
Y1Y2Y3
12.4%
+€6.9M
3
Y1Y2Y3
11.1%
+€2.6M
4
Y1Y2Y3
6.8%
+€9.2M
5
Y1Y2Y3
4.3%
−€5.6M
+€6.2M
Probability-weighted expected valueEvery path, weighted by its likelihood, resolved to one number.
Year 3
2028/29
Statements database

The foundation: thousands of published accounts.

Behind every simulation sits a structured library of real, published club financials — the reference set the model calibrates against, and a research tool in its own right.

12
Countries covered
30
League tiers
>80%
Statement coverage*
22/23–24/25
Seasons available

Thousands of published financial statements, blanketing the model's countries and tiers. Coverage is measured, not claimed — the grid shows exactly where it's complete and where it's still filling in.

Add-on only

The Statements Database adds the full archive to your model subscription — never sold as a standalone data feed.

€2,499/ year all-in
See pricing →
CoverageCountry × tier × season
FullHeavyLight
Each cell22/23 · 23/24 · 24/25
T1
T2
T3
T4
England
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Scotland

>80% of accounts covered across the top tiers, 22/23–24/25 — thousands of statements and counting.

Case studies

How the model gets used, in practice.

Insights and deep-dives exploring the big questions in the business of club football, all run through the model.

Sustainability of EPL promotion spending.

All three clubs promoted to the Premier League spent big this summer on transfers — €170.7M net on average. The model prices the worst case of one season up and two seasons down, and finds operations near break-even, with compliance needing just €39.3M of player sales.

Result

Headline investment, but attainable compliance — a reasonable risk for the upside.

England · Tier 1Read study
Operating Net · the three-year worst caseP&L summary
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Tier
1
2
2
Operating Net
(€6.3M)
€15.3M
€4.9M

One season up, two seasons down — and operations land near break-even.

Pricing the post-promotion gamble.

The wage step, the drop and the upside — priced.

England & France · Tier 1Read study

The top-half trap.

The risk, the logic, and the extent of the losses — in all five leagues.

Big 5 leagues · Tier 1Read study
Start free

Model your first scenario this week.

Run a full five-year simulation — P&L, compliance and outcome probabilities — before you commit a cent. No card, no sales call, just the model.

€999/ year
14 days free · no card
Full model, 2 countries during trial
P&L, compliance & probabilities
Statements Database available as add-on
Start free trial →